Des Moines Register Iowa Video Contest

 

Clinton and the Crying Game

While in Iowa, we tracked three individuals embedded in presidential campaigns.
Of the three campaigns tracked from the inside, Clinton's seemed the coldest. Not only were volunteers required to sign non-disclosure agreements, but Clinton's appearances appeared cold and calculated. While candidates in Iowa mingled with the crowd, shook hands and answered questions, Clinton's appearances were touch and go.
On the day of the New Hampshire primaaries, every television station in the granite state published video of Clinton's teary plea - which seemed to play well with voters, that is - if you believe the science behind the polling data predicting an Obama victory. With polls showing Clinton several points behind Obama, the emotional plea - breaking from Clinton's "Look at my record" approach seemed to help Clinton emerge victorious.
In the end, the scientific campaign strategies employed by camp Clinton in Iowa scored a distant third to the victory earned through the crying game in New Hampshire.


Campaign Script: Are you an Iowan with a phone?

*******John Zogby's Notes**

Zogby International published the explanation below:
1. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters said that they made up their minds on primary day. That is just an unprecedented number. I have polled many races, especially close ones, where 4% to 8% have said they finally decided on their vote the day of the election and that can wreak havoc on those of us who are in the business of capturing pre-election movements and trends. But nearly one in five this time?
2. It looks like the always feisty voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire have rejected pre-election coronations. In the case of Iowa, Democratic voters said that Mrs. Clinton is not inevitable, while in New Hampshire they were not ready to endorse the Obama train without checking the engine.
3. The compressed schedule of the two events may have had an impact. Normally the winning candidate gets an initial big bounce out of Iowa, and then plateaus. Then the next primary race begins. With less than five full days, Obama got his bounce in New Hampshire, then the settling down period began on the last day – under the radar screen.
4. My polling showed Clinton doing well on the late Sunday night and all day Monday – she was in a 2-point race in that portion of the polling. But since our methods call for a three-day rolling average, we had to legitimately factor the huge Obama numbers on Friday and Saturday – thus his 12 point average lead. Unfortunately, one day or a day–and–a–half does not make a trend and we ran out of time.
5. Going into the New Hampshire primary, we certainly did see Clinton holding on to a significant lead among women and older voters. But we were focusing on Obama’s massive lead among younger and independent voters. We seem to have missed the huge turnout of older women that apparently put Clinton over the top.
6. We expected that Obama would receive the lion’s share of independents and drain the Republican primary of these voters. It now appears that, perhaps with a sense that Obama had a lock on the Democratic side, independents felt free to vote on the Republican side and reward their hero, John McCain.

Clinton Takes New Hampshire

DEMOCRATSMagic Number 2,025

Obama 25		Clinton 24		Edwards 18

Full Democratic Scorecard

REPUBLICANSMagic Number 1,191

Romney 23		Huckabee 17		McCain 9
Thompson 6		Paul 2		Hunter 1

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Clinton - McCain Leading in New Hampshire Primaries

Source: CNN

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY January 08, 2008

Race	Status	Candidate	Votes	Vote %	Del*	Precincts
New Hampshire Updated 0 minutes ago County Results Exit Poll		Clinton	17,008	40%	0	13% reporting
		Obama	14,959	35%	0
		Edwards	7,077	17%	0
		Richardson	1,832	5%	0
		Kucinich	803	2%	0
		Biden	75	0%	0
		Gravel	58	0%	0
		Dodd	35	0%	0

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY January 08, 2008

Race	Status	Candidate	Votes	Vote %	Del*	Precincts
New Hampshire Updated 0 minutes ago County Results Exit Poll		McCain	9,741	37%	0	13% reporting
		Romney	7,523	29%	0
		Huckabee	3,174	12%	0
		Giuliani	2,465	9%	0
		Paul	2,186	8%	0
		Thompson	381	1%	0
		Hunter	153	1%	0

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Obama Speech Transcript Dec. 27 2007

(Photo by Darin Codon of Branson, Missouri)Barrack Obama was on fire during the last days of the Iowa campaign. We posted 6 minutes of his speech below. A few days later, in our presence he would add the now famous phrase,"I'm a hope monger."

Our team saw Obama on January 30th, three days after the speech transcript linked below was delivered.
Reporters embedded in Obama's campaign saw the speech as a turning point - they noted his delivery was smoother than ever.
Perhaps, the Senator from Illinois began to believe himself that a victory in Iowa was possible. From early reports from New Hampshire - a primary win in NH seems inevitable.

Barrack Obama Des Moines Iowa Transcript Dec, 27th 2007

Barack Obama shows why foreigners consider us naive. (by Brett Stephens Wall Street Journal)

Great opinion piece by Brett Stephens this morning.

...When foreigners assail Americans for being naive, it is often on account of contrasts like these. A nation in which the poor are defined by an income level that in most countries would make them prosperous is a nation that has all but forgotten the true meaning of poverty. A nation in which obesity is largely a problem of the poor (and anorexia of the upper-middle class) does not understand the word "hunger." A nation in which the most celebrated recent cases of racism, at Duke University or in Jena, La., are wholly or mostly contrived is not a racist nation. A nation in which our "division" is defined by the vitriol of Ann Coulter or James Carville is not a truly divided one--at least while Mr. Carville is married to Republican operative Mary Matalin and Ms. Coulter is romantically linked with New York City Democrat Andrew Stein.

Full Story
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