Sunday, January 6, 2008
Anyones Game in New Hamphire - The Zogby poll has both Dems and Republicans Close
Democrats – NH Tracking | 1-2/5 | 1-1/4 | 12–31/1–3 |
Clinton | 31% | 32% | 32% |
Obama | 30% | 28% | 26% |
Edwards | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Richardson | 7% | 7% | 7% |
Kucinich | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Biden | 1% | 2% | 2% |
Dodd | 1% | 1% | 1% |
Undecided | 6% | 7% | 8% |
"Democrats are drawing the lion's share of the Independents (40% of the total vote) and I have two key observations to make:
- Edwards still holds at 20% (including 21% since Iowa).
- Obama gets the lion's share of leaners, with Edwards receiving a smaller share. Clinton is shut out among leaners.
Pollster John Zogby will host a live online chat at 1:30 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 9, recap new Hampshire results and to discuss its implications on the road to the White House! For Zogby subscribers only – go to www.zogby.com to subscribe and see the latest polling details you cannot get anywhere else. |
"On the Republican side, Romney leads by a hair. McCain's problem is that there are fewer Independents choosing to vote thus far in the Republican primary (just one in four total) to help him match his impressive victory here over George W. Bush in 2000. McCain leads Romney among Independents 48% to 28%, while Romney scores well thus far with Republicans, 33% to 25%. McCain simply needs more Indies but that clearly seems to be Obama's turf.
"Huckabee has climbed a little and will move up a little more. Paul does well in Buchanan country (in the North with 14%) but McCain's iconoclasm and Huckabee's gains so far seem to be squeezing Paul's overall showing."
Republicans – NH Tracking | 1-2/5 | 1-1/4 | 12–31/1–3 |
McCain | 31% | 32% | 34% |
Romney | 32% | 30% | 30% |
Huckabee | 12% | 12% | 10% |
Giuliani | 7% | 9% | 9% |
Paul | 6% | 7% | 7% |
Thompson | 3% | 3% | 2% |
Hunter | 1% | <1% | 1% |
Undecided | 7% | 7% | 6% |
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Details of Zogby Poll
Starting up the event- Shelby County Caucus (Iowa)
Larry Madson, County Co-chair of the Shelby County Republican Party and the main organizer of the event said that the turn out was about double what was expected.
The kinks were worked out and the event started on time and largely without a hitch.
Other caucuses, however, began late due to the same issues: ballot shortages and an unexpected turnout. Owen Paun, fellow McCain campaigner, informed me that the caucus he attended in Coralville started out 45 minutes late. Also, while Ron Paul made a weak showing in Shelby county with only a handful of votes, he placed fourth in the Coralville caucus (a heavy college area) behind McCain and earned double digit support statewide with 10 percent of the vote.
The Republican caucus began with the Pledge of Allegiance and a prayer lead by a local pastor.